Extremism, Elections, and the Battle for Narratives
- Admin
- 3 days ago
- 5 min read
Welcome to GDG Inspire’s newsletter, The StratComm Insights!
In this Insight Edition, we analyse how the latest attacks impacted the German elections and how narratives emerging from the Munich Security Conference have been shaping the discussion.
Germany’s Election - A Strategic Communication Challenge
Germany’s latest election reinforced a growing trend throughout Europe: the mainstreaming of far-right discourse. CDU/CSU’s victory and AfD’s electoral gains highlight a political landscape driven by security concerns and migration debates—a shift that cannot be understood in isolation from recent violent attacks, which have directly influenced voter concerns and political narratives.
A Fragmented Political Landscape
The election results reflect deep political divisions. The CDU/CSU dominated in Western Germany and Bavaria. Meanwhile, the AfD secured significant support in the Eastern states.
The migration debate has become one of the most divisive issues in German politics and these results illustrate how security concerns drive political shifts. The SPD, once a pillar of German politics, suffered a historic defeat, despite inspiring their electoral campaign also around the concept of 'security'. Nonetheless,
areas directly affected by recent attacks overwhelmingly supported central/right-wing and far-right parties.
According to experts, educational background played a key role in shaping voter behavior. Those with basic education (up to high school level) were twice as likely to vote for the AfD (28%) as those with some degree of higher education (13%). A trend that hightlights how voters with lower levels of education seem to have a higher perception of insecurity, which leads them to likely support the nationalist and anti-immigration rhetoric.
The CDU/CSU, in turn, absorbed security-focused voters and positioned itself as the alternative to the far-right.
Fear as a Strategic Communication Tool
A series of violent attacks in Magdeburg, Aschaffenburg and Munich in the months leading up to the election played a decisive role in shifting voter sentiment. These attacks were quickly politicised by the AfD and CDU/CSU to reinforce their narratives of a failing immigration system.
The AfD capitalised on these incidents to embrace a controversial policy called “remigration”, advocating for the mass deportation of migrants who have committed crimes. CDU leader, Friedrich Merz, has also hardened his stance, claiming that the EU’s immigration and asylum system is dysfunctional and calling for a freeze on admissions, a permanent reinstatement of border checks and the rejection of all irregular arrivals—measures that contradict the EU’s Schengen framework. By consistently linking migration to crime, both parties strategically amplified public anxieties to justify more restrictive policies and position themselves as the only viable defenders of national security.
Bavarian Premier Markus Söder called for tougher security measures, warning that Germany “cannot keep moving from one attack to another without action”. This type of rhetoric also reinforced a fear-based narrative, shifting public opinion toward more restrictive migration policies.
Fear has been a central element, particularly regarding migration. And because fear-based messaging is about what is said, how, where, and how fast it spreads, these parties have successfully mobilised voter sentiment in favour of stricter immigration policies by portraying migration as an existential danger to national security.
Beyond their direct messaging, right-wing and far-right parties have also relied on disinformation to sustain a climate of fear.
Early reports misattributed the Magdeburg attack to Islamist extremism before later findings pointed to salad bar ideology.
However, by the time corrections emerged, the initial framing had already influenced public opinion.
But how should democratic actors counteract fear-based narratives without appearing to dismiss security concerns? By acknowledging legitimate security concerns while preventing their exploitation. This means shifting from reactive to proactive strategic communication and framing migration and security within an evidence-based approach rather than through the lens of crisis. Clear, assertive messaging that reinforces democratic values, while addressing public anxieties without amplifying fear, is essential.
The challenge is not just countering mis and disinformation, but rather shape the debate before fear narratives take hold.
The impact of the US interference in German elections
The controversy surrounding U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s remarks at the Munich Security Conference added an international dimension to this debate. Vance openly criticised European leaders for suppressing free speech and failing to address voter concerns, directly challenging German mainstream parties' refusal to engage with the AfD.
His meeting with AfD leader Alice Weidel just days before the election created more tensions and accusations of U.S. interference in German politics.
Beyond the diplomatic fallout, Vance’s speech signals the transatlantic influence within the far-right, which analysts already observed among extremist circles.
Then came Elon Musk. His public endorsement of the AfD on X sent shockwaves through German politics, with politicians from across the spectrum accusing him of meddling in the election. One CDU lawmaker even labelled Musk a “threat to democracy”.
But despite Musk attempted interference, Musk’s backing did not seem to have much impact in the election results, as the AfD’s final count was in line with pre-election forecasts. What his endorsement did do, however, was help shift the AfD’s image from a fringe party to a mainstream force.
Both Vance and Musk' approach on the German elections marks a new reality in transatlantic affairs: a US Presidency which for the next 4 years will not spare any non-politically correct remark or comment, especially in times where it matters more - such as elections.
Fair play in international politics is a tool of the past.
It will remain to be seen what role is left for diplomacy in a context where the President and its entourage' daily narratives lead the diplomatic strategy of a country.
Leveraging emotional intelligence for an alternative discourse on migration
Strategic communicators face a clear challenge: disrupting fear-based narratives, by crafting an alternative emotion-based response. This requires:
Reframing migration: rather than framing migration as a threat, research on audiences shall identify alternative entry points than security which can promote positive stories about migration. While the humanitarian angle seems to have progressively lost its appeal (also within left-leaning audiences), the economic and sustainability aspects of migration may be explored.
Strengthening trust in institutions: public communication can also play a role in contributing to depolarising the debate around migration. Transparent, evidence-based communication may contribute to unplug some stereotypical beliefs around people with a migrant background, and so reduce susceptibility to mis and disinformation.
Addressing emotional manipulation: emotional triggering is a key component of anti-migrant narratives. Recognising how fear and resentment are used to sway public opinion may help making people more aware of how their feelings are fuelled for electoral gain.
The way forward calls for a recalibration of strategic communication approaches, which identify alternative emotions other than fear, to promote a democratic discourse which is not discriminatory, yet it addresses existing security concerns and lack of integration.
The ability to navigate these shifting political realities will define the future of liberal democracies, as we have known them so far.
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