What Makes Elections Vulnerable

Admin
4 days ago
5 min read

Updated: 3 days ago

Welcome to The StratComm Insights!

In this Insight Edition, we will focus on the importance of shielding elections from foreign interferences.

The Decline of Democracy

A recent report by the V-Dem Institute states that the level of democracy enjoyed by the average person in the world in 2023 has regressed to 1985 levels. By country-based averages, it is back to 1998. Since 2009, the share of the world’s population living in autocratizing countries has overshadowed the share living in democratizing countries. The decline is particularly stark in Eastern Europe and South and Central Asia.

Only 29% of the world’s population – 2.3 billion people – is living in liberal and electoral democracies.

Elections are Getting Worse

2024 has been called by many the biggest election year in history. With over 60 countries—nearly half the world’s population— holding elections, the integrity of these processes is more crucial than ever.

Credible elections are at the heart of democratic societies.

Free and fair elections are essential for any healthy democracy, as they represent the will of the people and allow citizens to choose their leaders and hold them accountable.

Election integrity is based on the democratic principles of universal suffrage and political equality; they are professional, impartial, and transparent in its preparation and administration throughout the electoral cycle.

However, elections are the most fragile aspect of democracy. In an open, globalized information market driven by business interests, it is challenging for liberal democracies to shield elections from foreign interference aimed at creating divisions within society. According to the V-Dem report, the integrity of elections is deteriorating in 23 countries.

The Challenges for Democracies

Elections, both in Europe and around the world, are increasingly facing challenges, facilitated by the rise and increased use of digital tools and social media platforms.

From Russian disinformation campaigns, to Chinese propaganda, threats to democracy are real.

These threats, which have increased in quantity and quality, and include:

Disinformation Campaigns, spreading false information to manipulate public opinion and undermine trust in democratic institutions.
Cyber Attacks aimed at disrupting electoral infrastructure and stealing sensitive information.
Information Manipulation with the deliberate spread of misleading or false information to influence electoral outcomes.
Deep Fakes and AI made it possible to create realistic fake videos and images, which can be used to spread false narratives and deceive voters.

Foreign interference operations have drastically increased their scale, nature, and reach. Over the past decade, state and non-state actors have used the internet to pursue their political, economic, and military agendas, combining traditional military operations with cyberattacks and online propaganda campaigns.

Particularly, Russian information manipulation has been exploiting social media and AI-assisted operations. Throught fake bot accounts and machine translations, they boost deceptive content and manipulate algorithms. By “Doppelganger” websites and profiles that mimic authentic news outlets, Russia aims to deceive people into believing they are viewing credible content from reputable journalists or politicians.

One of the challenges in combatting foreign influence operations is that it is difficult to distinguish between normal campaign activity of domestic political actors and anti-democratic information operations by foreign governments, dubious commercial entities, or national groups.

Populist politicians and parties have used the same tools and strategies as foreign agents to drive ultra-nationalist and anti-immigrant rhetoric into mainstream political debates.

This overlap makes it increasingly difficult for average users to draw clear lines between foreign and domestic political activity, government and non-governmental organizations, and permissible campaign activities.

The French Example: VIGINUM

France provides a compelling example of proactive measures to safeguard election integrity. VIGINUM, an agency dedicated to monitoring and combating digital interference, highlights the seriousness with which this threat is taken. Its work involves tracking misinformation, foreign influence campaigns, and other digital threats to ensure that French elections remain free and fair.

From misleading social media posts to sophisticated cyberattacks, foreign interferences are numerous and constantly evolving in their tactics and targets. VIGINUM is a testament to the importance of adapting government defenses to protect the democratic process.

The Swedish Example: PDA - Psychological Defence Agency

The concept of "psychological defence" is not new for the Swedish military discipline. Yet, it gained new traction as FIMI (foreign information manipulation and interference) attacks from Russia increasingly targeted Sweden.

In January 2022, Sweden established an independent agency aimed at:

Raising awareness within society and build capacity to prevent dis and misinformation from further spreading e.g. check out the "Dont be fooled" campaign launched ahead of the political elections in fall 2022.
Training other governmental bodies on the risks related to FIMI and how to counter them.
Preventing, detecting and counteracting information influence operations.
Developing relevant methodologies to identify hostile foreign actors and their techniques.

Steps to Protect Democracy

These malign activities pose a serious security threat to EU, as election integrity pertains to national security, as well as to defence.

Concrete steps to combat foreign inteferences and protect democray include:

Stepping up Strategic Communication: Governments and institutions should proactively promote the added value of living in a democracy and build partnerships with trusted entities that work in communities of relevance.
Strengthening Information Sharing and Collaboration with Civil Society: Engage with civil society organizations to monitor and report on electoral threats.
Holding Large Online Platforms Accountable through the DSA: Ensure that large online platforms take responsibility for the content they host and take action against disinformation.
Enhancing Detection Capabilities: Invest in technologies and systems to detect foreign interference early.
Fostering a Resilient Democratic Environment: Develop and enforce robust legal frameworks, support independent media, and promote civic education and digital literacy.

In this context, the new European Democracy Shield, announced in the Political Guidelines for the next EU Commission 2024-2029 is to be welcomed.

Conclusion

The protection of election integrity is not just a matter of ensuring fair play; it pertains directly to national security and defense. When foreign actors seek to influence elections, they are, in essence, attempting to undermine sovereignty of countries or regions e.g. the EU. This can lead to weakened public trust, polarised societies, and compromised governmental effectiveness.

Ensuring the integrity of elections is a critical aspect of maintaining national security. It requires a coordinated and holistic effort involving government agencies, private sector partners, and the public. Vigilance, transparency, and strong countermeasures are essential to preserving the trust and credibility of democratic systems.

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